Mass Collaboration in Earthquake Risk Management

The mechanism of mass collaboration in risk management was studied during the Sichuan earthquake under a Web-based “PeopleFinder” project, where information is contributed and shared among mass contributors. The case study is provided by a great earthquake that happened in Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province, of southwestern China at 2:28 p.m. on May 12, 2008. We witnessed and experienced the rescue and relief efforts for the great earthquake. In this article, two fundamental frameworks are developed to study the mechanism of mass collaboration. Mass collaboration is proven to be effective in a big public crisis such as the Sichuan earthquake.     

Incidence,prevalence, mortality,disability-adjusted life years and risk factors of cancer in Australia and comparison with OECD countries, 1990–2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BackgroundComparative evidence on the burden, trend, and risk factors of cancer is limited. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we aimed to assess cancer burden – incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) – and attributable risk factors for Australia between 1990 and 2015, and to compare them with those of 34 members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).MethodsThe general GBD cancer estimation methods were used with data input from vital registration systems and cancer registries. A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the population-attributable fractions due to risk factors.ResultsIn 2015 there were 198,880 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 183,908–217,365) estimated incident cancer cases and 47,562 (95% UI: 46,061–49,004) cancer deaths in Australia. Twenty-nine percent (95% UI: 28.2–29.8) of total deaths and 17.0% (95% UI: 15.0–19.1) of DALYs were caused by cancer in Australia in 2015. Cancers of the trachea, bronchus and lung, colon and rectum, and prostate were the most common causes of cancer deaths. Thirty-six percent (95% UI: 33.1–37.9) of all cancer deaths were attributable to behavioral risks. The age-standardized cancer incidence rate (ASIR) increased between 1990 and 2015, while the age-standardized cancer death rate (ASDR) decreased over the same period. In 2015, compared to 34 other OECD countries Australia ranked first (highest) and 24^th based on ASIR and ASDR, respectively.ConclusionThe incidence of cancer has increased over 25 years, and behavioral risks are responsible for a large proportion of cancer deaths. Scaling up of prevention (using strategies targeting cancer risk factors), early detection, and treatment of cancer is required to effectively address this growing health challenge.     

Prognostic implications of changes in cardiac troponin I levels in patients with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome

Abstract

Objective: Information is limited on the prognostic implications of cardiac troponin I (cTnI) changes during the first days of non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS).

Methods: High-sensitivity cTnI levels were measured at study inclusion and after 48?h in 1615 conservatively managed NSTE-ACS patients from the Global Use of Strategies To Open Occluded Coronary Arteries (GUSTO) IV trial.

Results: Patients with moderately increased cTnI levels and without a relevant decrease over time had a significantly raised mortality at 30 days and 1 year. No relevant associations between cTnI changes and recurrent myocardial infarction were seen.

Conclusion: The cTnI change is predictive for subsequent mortality in selected conservatively managed NSTE-ACS patients.     

An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

Results of combined radiotherapy and hormonal treatment of prostate cancer patients with initial PSA value >40 ng/ml

AimTo evaluate the outcome of prostate cancer patients with initial PSA value >40 ng/ml.BackgroundThe outcome of prostate cancer patients with very high initial PSA value is not known and patients are frequently treated with palliative intent. We analyzed the outcome of radical combined hormonal treatment and radiotherapy in prostate cancer patients with initial PSA value >40 ng/ml.MethodsBetween January 2003 and December 2007 we treated, with curative intent, 56 patients with non-metastatic prostate cancer and initial PSA value >40 ng/ml. The treatment consisted of two months of neoadjuvant hormonal treatment (LHRH analog), radical radiotherapy (68–78 Gy, conformal technique) and an optional two-year adjuvant hormonal treatment.ResultsThe median time of follow up was 61 months. 5-Year overall survival was 90%. 5-Year biochemical disease free survival was 62%. T stage, Gleason score, PSA value, and radiotherapy dose did not significantly influence the outcome. Late genitourinal and gastrointestinal toxicity was acceptable.ConclusionRadical treatment in combination with hormonal treatment and radiotherapy can be recommended for this subgroup of prostate cancer patients with good performance status and life expectancy.